Game Informer Online has a brutally honest prediction of how successful the Wii will be.

Even though I can’t wait to get my hands on my own Wii and take Link through his latest adventure, Nintendo has a poor track record that still makes me nervous.

Billy Berghammer makes some very valid arguments why the Wii, like with the N64 and Gamecube, will sprint off the starting line and then slow to crawl well before the race is over.

… while Nintendo is touting one of the largest and most diverse launch line ups in the history of video games, the company will only have two first party games available at launch - The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess, and Excite Truck.  Another launch with a new Mario title absent already makes me nervous. Seriously?  Is this the N64 and GameCube all over again? … With Super Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime 3: Corruption, Super Smash Bros. Brawl all moving into the 2007 space, you can pretty much see all four of those games getting spread out to fill the entire 2007 year.  If history repeats itself, that’s exactly what Nintendo will do. Mark my words.

I like to think that this generation I will no longer be so dependent on Nintendo.  I've only ever bought Nintendo consoles but I've pretty much already decided I will buy an Xbox 360 once it becomes cheaper (or they bring out a new revision that fixes the hardware issues we keep hearing about).

My own experience with the Gamecube in Australia has been extremely frustrating.  The last two games I've bought I had to get from eBay because they were discontinued less than 12 months after they were released.  In fact, there were many games I had to go great lengths to purchase (I'm still looking for Beyond Good and Evil).  I have no intention to put myself in that position again.